What Are their Business Plans For Ghana? (Part II)

What Are their Business Plans For Ghana? (Part II)

By Bright B. Simons & Franklin Cudjoe



As Ghana prepares for general elections on December 7 2008, IMANI, one of Ghana's truly independent think-tanks has successfully steered media attention away from boring political campaign promises to asking the real question- What is the financial outlay for achieving the promises politicians keep running their mouths on? IMANI's Development Director, Bright Simons, has featured on major Ghanaian media with politicians discussing the issue.

The second part of this media campaign can be read here

What Are Their Business Plans for Ghana? Part I

By Bright Simons & Franklin Cudjoe

The question explicit in the title of this article is directed at the political parties aspiring to govern this country.

We are by no means ignorant of the fact that nations are infinitely more complex than businesses. Nor are we by 'business plan' referring to those multi-year 'development plans' favoured by certain 'political visionaries' ONCE THEY ARE IN POWER.

We use 'business plan' generically to refer to any espousal of a plan of action that also contains some financial figures by means of which the viability of the plan in question can be evaluated.
In the context of the political parties we are addressing, we are inquiring whether their MANIFESTOES, in their currently released or about to be released forms, are viable plans of actions.

You will appreciate our point better after you have read the underlisted 'promises' made
to the electorate by the various political parties vying for our votes:

-Provide free secondary education to all pupils in an extension of the current FCUBE program.
-Provide free tertiary tuition to all qualified students.
-Provide free electricity to the masses by means of 'permanent magnets'.
-'Grow' donkeys in sufficient numbers to transform the agricultural capacity of the North, in an integrated pastoral system in which the donkeys provide both free 'fertilizer' and mechanization-substitutes.
-Mobilise internal resources to the tune of $840 billion, up from the current ~$7 billion. On a comparative basis, this means Ghana's GDP during the tenure of this party will be ~$2 trillion, making the country the 5th wealthiest in the world – richer than the UK and France.
-Construct a pipeline from the newly discovered Western offshore oil fields to the North as part of an integrated petroleum complex. Figures from comparative endeavours elsewhere in the world (taking into account the geographical and industry context in Ghana) suggests a project outlay of 5 to 8 billion dollars (definitely greater than the current combined national expenditure).

What we find worrying is that when journalists choose to scrutinize these plans, even in the superficial manner they usually adopt, they ask a generic 'how will you do it' question, thus providing enormous room for politicians to ramble long-winded strategies containing even lesser content than the original statement of purpose.

It is not sufficient for a political party to 'cost' the individual initiatives they are proposing, something most of them are not even bothering to do anyway. They must produce a COMPLETE pro-forma budget which demonstrates what the opportunity cost for each initiative will be by showing the source of budgetary receipts alongside the inventory of expenses. A manifesto without such a pro-forma budget cannot suffice as a proper statement of intent.

Nearly all political schemes are feasible in a certain context. The true measure of feasibility comes when all the schemes are hung together and their costs summed up against projected inflows of resources to determine whether the overall political program is viable or not.
It may be entirely logical to argue for the entire northern corridor to be turned into an irrigation belt in order to feed a proposed cereal industry, but the question is whether in the inevitable trade-off that must occur for that to happen we are happy to sacrifice low public debt, NHIS concessions or the school feeding program in view of the expected levels of tax gain and donor aid.

It is true that not all our compatriots are capable of following detailed assessments of political programs, and that only a few even bother to read manifestoes. But that is why the Media exists. That is why, like most other societies, an academic elite subsists on the backbreaking labour of manual workers and other economic producers. It is the duty of such to transmit sophisticated analyses in forms accessible to the general population. But the quality of what they convey will, obviously, be coloured by the substance of what they receive from politicians.

Our argument is further that calls for an 'issues-based' electioneering campaign are empty demands unless we place a greater emphasis on improving the quality of manifestoes as actionable statements of intent. What constitutes an 'issue' is ultimately a subjective decision over which reasonable people can disagree.

Objective politicking, on the other hand, cannot proceed in the absence of some form of figure-based analysis and commentary.
We call on the Media and Civil Society institutions in this country to join us in a loud demand for all political parties to supply pro-forma statements of national accounts for, at least, their first term in office alongside, and correspondent with, their manifestoes.

Bright B. Simons & Franklin Cudjoe are affiliates of IMANI and www.AfricanLiberty.org

UN Climate Plans vs. The Poor

UN Climate Plans vs. The Poor

By Franklin Cudjoe & Bright Simons

Accra: -- Despite the breakdown of UN climate-change talks in Bali last December, the same themes were still being pushed at last week's meeting in Ghana--but now developing countries have begun to question the effects on the world's poorest. Read more here

Aid-Bashing to Go High-Fashion in Accra

Aid-Bashing to Go High-Fashion in Accra

Bright B. Simons & Franklin Cudjoe

Six weeks from now, a conference is supposed to take place in the West African country of Ghana that its organizers and participants claim will transform the aid process for the better.
But don't be fooled by the slogans and slick marketing, the Aid industry has no intention of changing its game, and its worst critics are in actual fact its best friends.

Read More

Thickheadedness on African debt

Thickheadedness on African debt

By Franklin Cudjoe, ACCRA, GhanaTuesday, July 8, 2008

Special to The Japan Times
ACCRA, Ghana

"For too long, ordinary Africans have struggled to get ahead because ofpoor governance, corruption and a general lack of economic freedom; the G8would only perpetuate these policies with its well-intentioned, yetill-practiced policies on debt forgiveness."

Visit The Japan Times to read full article

Anti-Foreign Aid converts in Spain

Anti-Foreign Aid converts in Spain


I was in Madrid as a guest of the Regional Governmnet of Madrid.
I was spoke on a range of development issues, especially aid and delivery of public services.
Read full story

Should poor governments be allowed to break drug patents for humanitarian reasons?

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

By Franklin Cudjoe

http://en.afrik.com/article13423.html

ACCRA, Ghana -- Should poor governments be allowed to break drug patents for humanitarian reasons?

That question is front-and-center at a major public health conference sponsored by the World Health Organization that started on 28 April in Geneva.

Top-notch policy experts from around the world have gathered to make formal policy recommendations about patents to Third World governments struggling with disease. Many will claim that patents allow Western drug companies to keep drug prices artificially high, and that patent-breaking is a cheap and easy way to get poor patients the drugs they need.

They're wrong on both counts.

For starters, the drugs needed in the developing world aren't patent protected. A 2004 study published in the journal Health Affairs showed that less than 2 percent of the 319 prescription drugs on the WHO's Model List of Essential Medicines are actually under patent.

What patients in the Third World need aren't patent-busting bureaucrats, but more roads, doctors, hospitals, nutritious food, and good sanitation. When roads are in disrepair, it can be particularly difficult to reach rural populations, where disease burden is highest. In places with no electricity, temperature-sensitive pills often go bad before anyone can benefit from them. Refrigerated Coca-Cola vans have been shipping polio vaccines to the hinterlands of Cameroon, because most roads are unmotorable.

Even if roads were available and medicines were donated, they must be prescribed by qualified medical staff. Patients will also need good drinking water and a good meal to enhance recovery from disease. However, the doctor-patient ratio is abysmally low and close to 60 percent of Africans do not have access to good sanitation and many subsist on less than a dollar a day.

Patents are actually a critical part of the solution. They protect the financial incentives that drive pharmaceutical companies to create innovative medications in the first place.

It takes an average of US$800 million and 10-15 years to bring a new drug to the market. Patents ensure that pharmaceutical companies can recoup that enormous investment.

If countries start breaking patents, though, firms lose out on sales. And they're less able to finance the development of new cures. That's a blow to the public health efforts of all countries, rich and poor. Ghana's health Minister told me that he fails to see how people could hold antagonistic positions against pharmaceutical companies, because in his own words "if drugs are being made, then people must be sick somewhere-it is not for charity".
Poor patent enforcement also gives rise to potentially harmful copycats.

The generic pharmaceuticals manufactured in the developing world often don't comply with international safety regulations. Low-quality and counterfeit drugs are common.

The WHO estimates that 10 percent of the world's drugs are counterfeit. Patent-theft is making the problem worse.

It's also important to realize that drug companies are not as blindly self-serving as many anti-patent groups portray them to be. Global pharmaceutical companies have worked for years with groups like the WHO and the UN Children's Fund to lead the fight against HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and other diseases plaguing the developing world.

Just a few months ago, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, and Merck donated $450 million in medicines to Burkina Faso, one of the poorest countries in the world. These sorts of philanthropic efforts are less likely if drug companies start struggling just to break even.

Many important steps need to be to taken to improve medical care in the Third World. Despite what the health activists are saying, stealing drug patents and stifling the creation of life-saving medicines is not one of them. It seems that a sensible route to take would be dialogue with pharmaceutical companies for differential pricing for developing world markets while making every effort to improve the well being of citizens. Open, decentralized and transparent government, lower trade tariffs, free speech, the rule of law, relaxed business entry and exit rules, property rights, and freedom to contract and freedom from contract would be important to help poor citizens buy their own health insurance against diseases.

Franklin Cudjoe is executive director of IMANI Center for Policy and Education, a think-tank located in Accra, Ghana. He spoke at the IGWG conference in Geneva on 28-29 April, 2008.

IMANI Named only African Think Tank to win $100,000 Award

The Atlas Economic Research Foundation announced that IMANI Center for Policy and Education (Accra, Ghana) is the only African think tank among its first class of recipients of Dorian & Antony Fisher Venture Grants.

More than 180 think tanks competed for the grants in this program, but only nine were selected to receive up to $100,000 from Atlas over the next three years:

· Alternate Solutions Institute (Lahore, Pakistan)

· Bluegrass Institute for Public Policy Solutions

(Kentucky,USA)

· Canadian Constitution Foundation (Calgary,Canada)

· Cathay Institute for Public Affairs (Beijing, China)

. Fundación Ecuador Libre (Guayaquil, Ecuador)

· Fundación F. A. von Hayek (Buenos Aires, Argentina)

· IMANI: Center for Policy and Education (Accra, Ghana)

· Istituto Bruno Leoni (Turin, Italy)

· New Economic School (Tbilisi, Georgia)

Franklin Cudjoe, the founding director of IMANI Center for Policy and Education, remarked: "Receiving this grant from the Atlas Economic Research Foundation is another great vindication of the important work IMANI began 3 years ago. We are determined to see that public policy debate in Ghana and West Africa involve students who should be informed by principled, non-partisan viewpoints."

Atlas established the Fisher Venture Grants program in January 2008 to recognize and assist think tanks that represent "great investments" for the future. Grantees are younger institutes with a track record that suggests a strong potential for improving the climate of ideas among their target audience.

Alejandro A. Chafuen, Atlas's President & CEO remarked, "Independent think tanks can play a crucial role to ensure that public policy debates are not dominated by government insiders.

The Cathay Institute in China is playing an important role by educating people about the virtues of limiting government, so that individual initiative and free enterprise can flourish." The Fisher Venture Grant program honors the memory of Atlas's late founders, Sir Antony Fisher and his wife Dorian.

The couple established the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, because they believed that investments in emerging think tanks could be extremely cost-effective, especially when complimented with mentoring to further improve those think tanks' prospects for long-term success.

For this reason, Atlas structured the Dorian and Antony Fisher Venture Grants program to provide funding to think tanks over a three-year term, during which time Atlas will be in frequent contact to help develop plans and to monitor performance. Half of the grant is structured as a "matching program," providing strong incentives for think tanks to attract new local supporters for their important work.

IMANI was chosen from scores of think tanks (180)in the Atlas network because of:

.Its commitment to ethical behaviuor and civil discourse

.Its commitment to the principles of a free society:individualliberty,free enterpreise,and rule of law under a limited government.

.Your appllication, which showed elements of a successful business plan. That is an understanding of your market,and how to serve it while fulfilling your mission and building your organization's capacities

.We have been impressed by your success in developing and executing seminars to teach young people about classical liberal ideas. we see tremendous potential in your ability to identify mentor and cultivate new leaders in West Africa.

.Our belief in you, Franklin, as an effective leader who will be able to grow IMANI into an institution that will have long lasting impact in Ghana.

Founded in the United States in 1981, the Atlas Economic Research Foundation (www.atlasUSA.org) develops and strengthens a worldwide network of independent think tanks.

Founded in late 2004, IMANI is an African based nonprofit, non-government organization dedicated to educating society on the benefits of a free economy and fostering public awareness of important policy issues concerning business, government and civil society. Through seminars, publications and articles, IMANI and its international partners (primarily AfricanLiberty.org) seek to promote enlightened inquiry based on sound values and scholarship.

In Praise of Global Capitlaism

The ongoing United Nations Conference on Trade and Globalisation in Ghana has given free reign to misguided activist NGOs and many African leaders to demonise globalisation for many of Africa's home grown problems.

AfricanLiberty.org Editor speaks in favour of greater openness while admonishing African leaders to give attention to inhibiting local barriers to trade and development. Franklin was a guest on Ghana's widely syndicated and best Talk Radio, Choice FM.

Please listen to the interview here

TV AFRICA- on the Global Food Crisis

AfricanLiberty.org Editor, Franklin Cudjoe speaks to TV Africa about the global surge in food inflation, effects and how to arrest the situation. AfricanLiberty.org columnnist and IMANI's Development Director, Bright Simons speaks on the same subject in Akan (Ghana's predominant language) on TV Africa.

Please listen to the 15-minute interview here..

Defining the Ground Rules for Political Party Activities

Africa is fast gaining notoriety for running flawed elections. Cameroun, Nigeria, Kenya and Zimbabwe have exhibited the most atrocious violations of citizen's right to freely choose who should direct their desires. Many countries on the continent are awaiting their fate as elections are planned for the end of 2008. Ghana, an oasis of peace and tranquility is one such country. Are Ghanaians waiting for the ominous nemesis visited upon by leaders of the aforementoned countries? Or would Ghanaians warn their presidential hopefuls to literally, store water to put out their potential burning beards?

AfricanLiberty.org editor and IMANI's Executive Director, Franklin Cudjoe speaks again to TV Africa's host of "Matters Arising", Dr. Niyi Bi Alarbi, one time Speech Writer of Ghana's Current President. The other discussant is the Director of Public Affiars of the National Council on Civic Education. This is the fourth TV Africa apearance in three weeks.

Also, AfricanLiberty.org contributor and IMANI's Director of Development, Bright Simons continues to urge civil discourse over political invectives on Ghana's most popular local language programme, "OMAN YI MU NSEM"( translated, National Issues). This is the third TV Africa appearance in one month.

Please listen to audio here.

Party Political Funding

The Institute of Economic Affairs in GHANA (not the UK) is seeking to push a bill in Parliament to ask ordinary and overburdened Ghanaians to contribute 2.5% of Value Added Tax to support Political Parties in Ghana. 2.5% VAT is what Ghanaians pay into the National Health Insurance fund and 2.5% VAT is again what we pay into the Ghana Education Trust Fund.

AfricanLiberty.org editor, Franklin Cudjoe and other civil society groups feel its immoral to ask Ghanaians, who correctly perceive Politicans as self-serving to give them free money.

AfricanLiberty.org Editor, Franklin Cudjoe in the second of two television interviews discusses political party funding with Ghana's Ruling government's spokesperson on Social Services, Mr. Amponsah Bediako and the main opposition party (National Democratic Congresss) Deputy General Secretary, Mr. Baba Jamal.

Please listen to audio here,

Global Food Crisis- TV Interview

AfricanLiberty.org editor, Franklin Cudjoe speaks his mind on public financing of political parties. Please listen to this short interview on Ghana's TV Africa, viewed in 7 regions of Ghana and neighbouring Ivory Coast and Togo.

Please listen to the interview here

The Foundations of a Free Society

AfricanLiberty.org Editor, Franklin Cudjoe spoke to 55 members of the Students in Free Enterprise chapter of the Institute of Professional Studies in Ghana. The talk was on the foundations of a free society. The talk begins a series of campus visitations to promote the work of AfricanLiberty.org and IMANI.

Please see pictures of the event here.

Also listen to audio here.

February, March 2008- Been Really Busy and will be

1. In keeping with the need to effectively disseminate our noble ideas offreedom and prosperity, IMANI explained to a section of the Ghanaian mediawhy property right is the midwife of economic development. IMANI on 4 March 2008 launched the 2008 International Property RightsIndex with Twelve 12 media houses (3 radio and 9 print media) represented.The state-owned radio, Radio Ghana, and the state-owned newspaper, theGhanaian Times were very well represented. So was Ghana's top financial newspaper, the Business and Financial Times. We will see their reports soon. Please listen to the hour-long discussion during the launch Here

Also listen to a Top Radio news item today on the launch Here Your comments are appreciated.


2. Dear Friends, So, on February 21 2008, IMANI brought together 102 delegates to discuss a draft policy on alcohol for Ghana-because Ghana has no policy on alcohol.Two earlier workshops brought together 150 delegates. Last Thursday'sdelegates included, highly placed representatives from varied Ministries,
Departments and Agencies of the Ghanaian government, Australian and Namibiangovernment officials as well as corporate directors of alcoholic beveragecompanies from Ghana and South Africa, Namibia, Kenya, Nigeria, U.K and theU.S.A who came flew in learn from the Ghana/IMANI experience. Please listen to Franklin's welcome remarks Here and Listen totwo very short radio interviews on the alcohol workshop Here Please see some photos from the event Here .

And oh, we continue to be the toast of the BBC as evidenced in an interview I granted them yesterday on illegal migration and recently on President Bush' Africa tour




3. AfricanLiberty.org and IMANI are on a roll in the Ghanaian media. We are in stand by mode at every turn of President Bush' visit to givecommentaries. IMANI's Director of Development, Bright Simons and its
Executive Director, Franklin Cudjoe are granting interviews to the BBC, JoyFM, CITI FM, SKY FM and TV AFRICA. Hopefully Ghanaians on this forumwatched our TV Africa interview this morning. I will be on TV Africa thisevening from 10:00pm discussing Bush's visit. We will share with you audioand video we blinks to some of these interviews, but meanwhile here is aview from one of IMANI's friend and Presidential hopeful, Dr. ArthurKobina Kennedy who says "President Bush Deserves Better" Please enjoy reading Dr Kennedy's article by visiting AfricanLiberty.org

4. On 19th February, Franklin discussed Bush's visit on Ghana's second best private radio station, CITI FM. His co-discussants were Dr. Ekow Spio Garbrah, Ghana's former Ambassador to the United States and Current CEO of the Commonwealth Telecommunications Organisation, Dr. Nii Moi Thompson, An Economist and Dr. Yao Graham, Ghanaian Director of Third World Network. Please listen to entire interview. Please listen to the entire interview Here

5. Franklin Cudjoe, Executive Director of IMANI and Editor of AfricanLiberty.org org spoke to the BBC World Service on President Bush's on going visit to Africa yesterday.
Please listen to the entire segment Here



6. Listen to audio discussion between IMANI's Director and Ghana's Deputy Minister for Manpower, Youth and Employment and a Director of a socialist organization on government’s plan to make direct cash transfers to people it solely identifies as poor.
Radio discussion here

IMANI Director's Article forms basis for Radio discussion with Government

At IMANI, we believe engaging local governments on thorny issues such as the one reported above makes real impact. We have engaged the Ministries of Health, Trade and Communication in the past with great results. On February 21, 2008, IMANI will present a draft national alcohol policy to 80 delegates and the Ministries of Health, Trade, Communication, Transport, and numerous NGOs.

So amidst the joy of fatherhood, I was busy responding to national duties.

After many Ghanaians commented on the article below, the Ghanaian Government’s main state-owned radio station with syndicating alliances in all ten regions of Ghana used the article for its main discussions yesterday. The discussants were the Hon. Deputy Minister for Manpower, Youth and Employment, Franklin Cudjoe ( IMANI Director and AfricanLiberty.org Editor) and Dr. Steve Manteau who is communication director for ISODEC, a socialist NGO.

Enjoy the 102 minute discussion by clicking on this audio link . Apart from the first 45 seconds, the entire audio link is fine.

The article is here, and was published in the State-owned Ghanaian Daily Graphic on Monday, February 4, 2008

Also carried in the The New Times in Rwanda and All Africa.com

Chad Implodes- One more reason why the African Union is a failure!

Chad Implodes- One more reason why the African Union is a failure!

Whilst tension in Kenya keeps simmering, another unattended African putrefied sore has been exposed- Chad. Haven been kept dirt poor for almost two decades by strong man Idris Deby, Chadians had waited for the day he will be forced out of power as their faith in democratic elections had long waned.

Chad’s colonial masters, the French, had dabbled in local politics with unflinching support for Mr Deby whilst they benefited from subsidized oil resources. But Sudan has been fighting a proxy war in Chad in revenge for alleged Chadian support for anti-Khartoum elements.

So what will the African Union do?

The newly elected AU chairman, Tanzanian Jakaya Kikwete had indeed received a rousing welcome, the African leader’s way. For now he can show his bravado by promising to ostracize a rebel-led government. But he has already failed even before the rebels came to power. With his blessings, the AU has appointed a two man mediation team to be led by Congo’s Dennis Sassou Nguesso, himself a graduated petty tyrant with lots of oil cash stashed away in foreign banks and the controversial Libyan dictator Brother Muama Ghadaffi

However, Ghadaffi has accepted the limitation of the AU to own up to their problems. He seems to be echoing the much publicized miserly appeal of the 54-nation group to the European Union to provide helicopters for its poorly resourced troops in Dafur, while its leaders ride in bullet proof gold-plated Mercedes benz.

Libya can buy fighter helicopters for the AU, but it would be on Muammar Gaddafi terms- his lofty ideals of African unity but nothing of any use on the real disasters of Kenya, Zimbabwe, Darfur, Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea.

As I argued in an article recently, failures such as corruption and election-rigging do not even feature on the agenda of the AU any time they meet--although these remain the real unifying features of Africa.

“Above all, there was not a whisper about property rights, the rule of law and market freedoms that would allow Africans to emulate the growth of Asian countries such as Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea--which were as poor as we were at independence in the 1960s. Even the growth records of South Africa, Mauritius and Botswana are ignored as being somehow exceptional instead of being acknowledged as the direct result of sound economic policies.”

Right now, we can only hope against hope for Kenya and Chad.

Cudjoe v. Clooney ,courtesy the venerable Tom Palmer

February 1, 2008

Cudjoe v. Clooney

My friend and colleague Franklin Cudjoe, the leader of the IMANI think tank in Ghana and editor of the joint IMANI/Cato project AfricanLiberty.org, takes on the appointment of George Clooney as a “peace ambassador” in Africa in a debate with a “Friend of the Earth.” The debate is in the last quarter of this BBC segment.


Many thanks, Tom.

UPDATE: It turns out the link to the debate on this BBC segment had expired, but my responses were not different from my Daily Telegraph article on Rock Star Economics"

Reactions to my article from confused socialists

African libertarians need to revisit their classics..

January 31, 2008
Franklin Cudjoe, editor of African Liberty, a CATO-sponsored african libertarian platform offers us yet another of those convulted long essays mixing up a bunch of different arguments in order to attack some government policy. The policy, a plan to directly give $8 to $15 every month to the poorest Ghaneans, is described as a “centrally-plannest waste”.

See, as far as I know, the libertarian critic of central planning is that markets, the sum of individual decisions, are the most efficient way to allocate ressources. And that’s why, if there has to be social policy, poverty-alleviation measures, direct cash transfers are usually prefered to more market-disrupting measures.

School vouchers, for instance, are considered a better way to provide education to the poorest than public schools. After all giving vouchers or money directly to the poor is trusting individuals to make their own decisions instead of governments inefficiently allocating ressources. That’s why I’m confused when I read:

"How much of all the money sourced above and the one for merry-making every other month will go into agricultural reforms? Would it ensure secure land tenure for farmers to enhance large scale production? Train agric extension officers to advise farmers on best farming practices, provide soft loans, reduced prices of agricultural inputs, support infrastructure to facilitate storage and movement of goods, so that our energetic rural youth will not flock to the cities in search of absentee jobs?"

My guess is not much. But then again, that’s because I’m one of those socialist/collectivists/statists Cudjoe is supposed to rant about. One who think that government intervention, via infrastructure, via education, via fertilizer subsidies, would work faster and may be better than market-based allocation. However if you value freedom, liberty and all that, why would one be concerned about how the money is used. And why would one think the energic rural youth would flock to the cities and not use their cash to buy agricultural inputs, build storage facilities, roads or invest in training ? Isn’t that the magic of the market ?

So yeah, I’m disappointed. Can’t the western libertarian network find smarter and more principled writers and thinkers to promote their cause in Africa ? May be, we’d get some interesting debates and may be one or two good policy initiatives could be squeezed out of it.

PS: to be fair, most of the article is dedicated to describing make-work schemes, utilities subsidies and other programs that are more deserving of libertarian attack but I did call it a “convulted long essay mixing up a bunch of different arguments” for a reason.


One Response to “African libertarians need to revisit their classics..”

Mbelolo Says: January 31, 2008 at 9:26 pm
Cudjoe has not read his Milton Friedman, perhaps. See http://www.samuelbrittan.co.uk/text88_p.html


Franklin Cudjoe Says: February 1, 2008 at 12:08 am
Thanks for taking time to read my “convulutedlong essay”. You actually just made it to the list of those disoriented propagandists.

You confused your socialist dimented position because you failed to take into consideration all the 12 preceding paragraphs to your quote. You would have been a bad student of English summary if you were in a serious class.

“How much of all the money sourced above and the one for merry-making every other month will go into agricultural reforms? Would it ensure secure land tenure for farmers to enhance large scale production?, train agric extension officers to advise farmers on best farming practices, provide soft loans, reduced prices of agricultural inputs, support infrastructure to facilitate storage and movement of goods, so that our energetic rural youth will not flock to the cities in search of absentee jobs?.”

You said “However if you value freedom, liberty and all that, why would one be concerned about how the money is used. And why would one think the energic rural youth would flock to the cities and not use their cash to buy agricultural inputs, build storage facilities, roads or invest in training ? Isn’t that the magic of the market ?”

I’m sorry, but freedom and liberty does not give any one the excuse to make foolish decisions especially when the money to be freely distributed here is borrowed in a people’s name and without any serious baseline data or indeed any reasonable criteria to select the poor people? Would it go to ohousehold heads? Come on, even my illiterate grand mum laughed at the suggestion as she grimaced ” yeah, there are a lot of drunks who will just spend the money on booze”.

See, its just simplistic to argument that rural folks will accumulate $8 to $15 every two months to invest in agriculture, when they do not even own the land on which they will attempt to farm, or even if they did, would they be able to cart their peasantry produce to the markets since many roads are just filled with pot holes.

Do you appreciate the value of decentralized decision making at all? You attempt to be smart by suggesting school vouchers. Thats okay, but these so called collectivist/socialist thinkers, including those who advised government knew of vouchers anyway. But then the real reason as many Ghanaians who are the legitimate assessors of this useless policy know it is an elctoral gimmick as we have crucial votes this year.

Let me reiterate again thatthe market is a process and bound to make mistakes. Even that we expect sensible regulations from government. But seriously, putting all the isms aside, do you seriously think this is the best way out? Aba?? just for three years?? and then what? the beneficiaries ceases to exist? even you don’t expect your father to live forever. We must be clear not to confuse philathropy with serious development issues. You see we in Ghana even under socialist administrations have seen the unitended consequences fo these utopian ideals and left many worse than they were before.

Come to Ghana and I will take you around and ask simple villagers about how they ababdoned their dremas becasue fo governmnet free money and what happened to them later. A stranger has wide eyes in deed!!!

Franklin Cudjoe Says: February 1, 2008 at 12:18 am
Sounds like a South African forum here. Oh I see, are you guys the ones exacting the eveils of apartheid with BEE? I now understand.

See, Mbelolo, I do not need to be a scholar of Friedman, Hayek or Adam Smith to come to terms with a stupid idea such as getting free money from government when I know it is indeed not free money but will come back as an albastross around our necks - I know it will make me dull, and when I don’t get any longer, i become a social misfit, drunk and produce vengeful street urchins who say in South Africa could add to the crime wave there. We in Ghana are trying to avoid such hell!


aflakete Says: February 1, 2008 at 3:37 am
“You confused your socialist dimented position because you failed to take into consideration all the 12 preceding paragraphs to your quote.”

No, not really. I ignored those 12 paragraphs because they were about other policies. A bit of focus from you guys would be nice for a change.
As far as the rest of what you said, well, it seems you don’t get what confused me. Do you think poverty alleviation and social policy should be done via direct government intervention ? Do you think this is the worse idea they came up with ? Worse than import substitution plans ? Worse than roads to nowhere ? Worse than building a dam with the hopes of jump-starting industrialisation ? Worse than industrial policy ? Worse than price controls and single-product subsidies ?

Mbelolo Says: February 1, 2008 at 3:53 am

Mr. Cudjoe, direct cash transfer is a concept with a respectable libertarian history, as discussed in the article I linked. For one example, Milton Friedman advocated a negative income tax, which would give money to those below a poverty threshhold.
You may wish to disagree with Hayek and Friedman on the subject, that’s certainly fine, but an acknowledgement of the libertarian history of the concept is in order.

Direct Cash for the Poor

Last Tuesday, Ghana's Minister for Employment and Manpower Development, Nana Akomea said a total US$ 20million has been earmarked to be disbursed to the country's poor. Each person or group would receive between $8 and $15 a day to be spent on food and water. The programme will be repeated in 2009 and 2010.

The decision is derived from the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy II which stipulates that the necessary social interventions must be put in place by government to ensure that direct cash is put into the pockets of the poor.

Clearly, this is very demeaning to the average Ghanaian who for almost eight years has been told his or her life has gotten better. I believe that the real people who need this sympathy are orphans, internally displaced persons, old and sick persons disowned by their families. Besides, philanthropy is already taking care of these people.

Read on....




Feature Article of Thursday, 31 January 2008 in Ghana web

Direct Cash for the Poor-Ghana's grand centrally planned waste.

Medieval Kings and Princes were naively convinced by alchemists that they could turn lead into gold. Even though the alchemists repeatedly failed, they received the support of the Kings and Princes and the joke continued until every one became fed up.

If the above was a fairy tale, be prepared for the greatest hoax of all time, being hatched in modern Ghana, allegedly one of the fastest reforming economies according to the World Bank.The decision by the Ghanaian government to make direct cash transfers of between $8- $ 15 every other month to those it solely identifies as poor, marginalized, vulnerable and weak has gotten the ire of many Ghanaians.

Particularly worrying is the state of mind of government advisors on this idea. Their magic wand to ending poverty evokes images of a cabal of hitherto intelligent academics whose leap of faith in deformed poverty reduction papers surpasses the tiny but useful bits of information on individual needs and wants in an economy. Such dispersed infinitesimal information is key to decision making, but not a centrally controlled one as giving direct cash to alleviate one's poverty, created by successive governments in the first place.

Eventually, because many African governments feed on populism rather than what works, our government will deliberately not see the enormity of its attempt to embrace what clearly is a failure.

The government's endorsement of such a plan means that they have little faith in some of the steps they confidently took in 2001 which saved us from a downward spiral. Then, the economy was in one word, stupid. Today, having navigated that tight rope which many African governments will want to catch a shadow of, the limited market-oriented policies that gave it a jolt is painfully being dumped in favour of a Chavez-Castro-Mugabe type economy. An economist has even suggested that the reason for government's about turn is because the market economy had brought in its wake untold hardships to the poor. So, collectivist countries like Bolivia, Brazil, Venezuela and Cuba have been cited as leaders in making direct cash to the poor. Even the US and the UK were cited as well.

But we all know the festering laziness and impoverishment such packages have caused among minority communities wherever they have been introduced. Supporters of this perverted economic theory are pointing to the near recession of the U.S economy and the government's response by infusing over US$140 billion into the economy. Yes, that's salvation, but then the cash will come in the form of tax cuts for some 100 million people who have been hit by the mortgage crisis. That's a far cry from making direct cash transfers.

Yes, the market is a process and likely to make mistakes which are self-correcting by the way, with occasional sensible regulation. But we must be mindful that a market economy supervised by crony capitalists has the same effect like that organized under a mafia.Besides if you pursue any economic system half-heartedly, you wouldn't reap its full results.

So, even though the current administration ostensibly supports a private sector-led economy, its taxation policies have simply been a cut and paste one. Apart from the myriad of double taxation we are burdened with on virtually everything edible, the very poor Ghanaians have been asked to pay air time tax on mobile phones. The talk time tax itself does not worry me, but what the proceeds are intended for--government supervised employment schemes, which obviously is another flamboyant voter gimmick. Government thwarts the efforts of public utility regulators when they set realistic tariffs with voter-induced subsidies and then fails to ensure that adequate transparent investments is made in the delivery of good sanitation, water and electricity. The inability of even urban residents to access these services adds to their poverty.

Granted the 'kindness' of government sees the light, how can we ensure that the money actually gets into the pockets of the identified people especially because of our not too transparent agencies? The government and its poor friends would be up against officials of Ministries, Departments and Agencies that have been alleged to misappropriate 443 billion cedis (over $46 million) last year alone aside the inability, in one instance, to provide documents to cover the purchase of 113 officials cars.

Discerning Ghanaians are asking other questions- so what happened to the millions saved in debt repayment after 80% of our debts were forgiven during the G8 Gleneagles summit in 2005? What happened to the handsome windfalls from world cocoa and gold prices? What happens to the myriad of taxes we pay? And what will happen to the Millennium Challenge Account money?

How much of all the money sourced above and the one for merry-making every other month will go into agricultural reforms? Would it ensure secure land tenure for farmers to enhance large scale production?, train agric extension officers to advise farmers on best farming practices, provide soft loans, reduced prices of agricultural inputs, support infrastructure to facilitate storage and movement of goods, so that our energetic rural youth will not flock to the cities in search of absentee jobs?.

Opposition to the above suggestion will come from praise-singing propagandists who will attempt to say real decentralization of power and resources to every district in Ghana will not solve our problems as local knowledge is not sufficient to determine what is good for the locals.

If every district was allowed to determine its own economic agenda, there will indeed be no need for government parastatals to convince the President for instance, to assemble all his hard working ministers to organize a people's assembly in a region once a year to listen to personal problems of poor people that could have been solved by an empowered village town crier who the villagers themselves elect.To those propagandists who think this cannot work, I will recommend Thomas Sowell's book "Knowledge and Decisions".

Franklin Cudjoe is Executive Director of IMANI Center for Policy & Education and editor of www.AfricanLiberty.org

The Ironey of a Jacob Zuma Presidency

Rejoice Ngwenya takes on another controversial African leader in the making.....

Jacob Zuma, South Africa’s new questionable African National Congress (ANC) president has a political destiny already sealed with fate. Those who believe that his electoral victory will emit ‘shock waves’ in and beyond South Africa simply do not understand the political game plan in the ANC.

A Zuma victory, however thin or wide portend bad omen for 21st century politics even in Africa. Not least because 21st century politics is immune to socialist rhetoric, but that South Africans are wise enough to know that sacrificing hard-won regional and continental dominance on the altar of simplistic populism come 2009 will be suicidal.

Zuma’s ascendancy to the ANC throne leaves us with a relative historical reflection about his roots. Jacob Zuma belongs to the Zulu tribal lineage, known for its authoritarian military antics under Tshaka Zulu and by extension, though less dramatic under Chief Gahsha Buthelezi.
We are aware that Buthelezi tried to impose the political influence of the Zulu on contemporary South Africa through his Inkatha Movement, his effort met with dismal failure. Moreover, his flirtation with the Apartheid regime left a permanent scar that sent repulsive signals to a nation wanting nothing short of absolute victory over the oppressors. Zulus therefore remained completely overshadowed in the ANC hierarchy, and ironically, many skeptics believed the Pan Africanist Congress (PAC) was a better forum for Zulus to express their nationalist sentiments than the Xhosa dominated ANC. And yet the mere fact that ANC liberation fighters used the Umkhonto weSizwe brand, a Zulu term that means ‘spear of the nation’, the significance of the Zulu content in the ANC – which is what Zuma symbolises – now cannot be ignored. But I have strong doubts whether this suffices as a signal tune to Zuma’s ascendancy to the throne.

For South Africa, the phenomenon of a new national president emerging out of an ANC political process is nothing strange. After all it is the party that produced great characters like Albert Sisulu, Oliver Thambo and of course, global icon Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela. But to say Jacob Zuma will substitute a ‘great name’ in the person of Thabo Mbeki would be an illusion. Most South Africans believe Mbeki’s soft-touch approach to the national crises of HIV/Aids, unemployment and crime are blight to the ANC. A Polokwane based weekly, The Speaker, adds: "His [Mbeki] uneven handed way he dealt with the Health Minister Manto Chabalala Msimang vs her deputy Nosisive Routledge; and the NPA boss Vusi Pikoli vs Police Commissioner Jackie Selebi's criminal allegations all contributed to his downfall." This means the average black South African, Abensundu or Uluntu, come 2009 will be elated to see Mbeki’s political future bleak. But there is a catch to this irony. If, according to the ANC constitution, Polokwane 2008 has ‘produced a future president’ in Zuma, South Africans, technically, must ready themselves for a populist Zulu cadre as national leader. This predictive model may sound totally inconsistent with a constitutional democracy that hosts ‘big’ political contestants like the PAC, Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Movement, but the politics of South Africa is mutually exclusive - black or white. How inconceivable it is that a nation that suffered four centuries of white-on-black oppression can vote for a white president, even if it is a contest between Helen Zille’s superior liberal DA ideology and Zuma’s socialist rhetoric!

Thabo Mbeki, despite his political transgressions and acclaimed 'aloofness', casts a humble impression of an intellectual ideologue who understands the importance of business and property rights. This explains why ANC’s potpourri of socialist, communist and labour membership co-exists with Black Economic Empowerment of the Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa’s. But if black South Africans vote for Zuma in 2009, they will be doing it in the full knowledge that he is a man who pays no homage to issues of HIV/Aids, women’s rights and business integrity, although they would rather live with this, than either with another Thabo Mbeki term or Helen Zille. If this sounds confusing, the National Prosecuting Authority, South Africa’s version of FBI has the answer.

According to current court records, Jacob Zuma has 'a criminal history' that can wreck anybody’s political career. But perhaps like an American Whitehouse soapie, sex scandals and money games play a minor role in political credibility in South Africa. Yet as you read this article, the NPA has concluded that Jacob Zuma, who survived a rape conviction by a hair’s breadth, definitely has many cases to answer on his relationship with the jailed fraudster Shabir Schaik. Political analysts agree that this is neither a case of circumstantial evidence nor political harassment. Therefore if Zuma is convicted, that will signal the end of his flirtation with national presidency, in which case his deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe may run Pretoria after 2009. If Zuma survives, South Africans will find themselves head on with fate – a president with a ‘criminal’ history, but then, will all the members of the African Unity that are ‘clean’ please raise your right hands!

For us poor Zimbabweans, we would be caught between a rock and a hard place. Mark Gevisser’s biography: Thabo Mbeki, The Dream Deferred reveals that Mbeki has a favour to return to habitual autocrat Robert Mugabe. The ruling party ZANUpf had ‘bad’ relations with ANC during both countries’ liberation struggles, not least because of ideological differences, but that Oliver Thambo simply preferred the friendship of the more aristocratic Joshua Nkomo, Mugabe’s fierce and credible political rival. After Zimbabwe’s independence in 1980, ANC’s Umkhonto weSizwe, whose fighters had been on duty with Nkomo ‘s ZIPRA cadres in Rhodesia, needed a military rearguard in Zimbabwe, so Mbeki was assigned the delicate task of negotiating for this critical passage with a hostile Mugabe.

Thus for Zimbabweans who have been clamouring for South Africa to take ‘drastic’ action as a catalyst for rapid political change, Mbeki’s inevitable departure is a blessing in disguise, because Zuma not only has strong Umkhonto weSizwe tendencies, but his Zulu ancestry tallies with the late Joshua Nkomo ‘s Matebele lineage. Mind you, Zimbabweans have all the reasons to be more optimistic about Zuma’s ‘hard-line approach’ on Mugabe because the latter is not only accused of having massacred twenty thousand Zuma’s ‘Zulu descendants’ in Matebeleland, but also that ZANUpf resents strategic alliances between COSATU - Zuma's key ally - and MDC, Mugabe's arch enemy. However, were Zuma’s brand of populist politics to destroy the South African economy, three million Zimbabwean economic exiles, who to date sustain Harare’s fragile economy, would be ‘dead and buried’. But for Africa, it is another feather in the cap of leaders who have blood, semen and funny money on their hands. Do the SADC and AU really care?

This syndicated article by AfricanLiberty.org was written by Rejoice Ngwenya, Zimbabwean Freemarket Activist and Political Analyst based in Harare. Send him an email at rejoice@earth.co.zw

Kenya Elections 2007 Continued:-comments

Good morning Mr Cudjoe,

Thank you for taking the time to write to me. It is a pleasure to read from you.
First of all congratulations on the excellent work you are doing with www.imanighana.com and www.africanliberty.org. I have taken a quicklook and will be back to have a deeper look. It is interesting to read such thought provoking commentary from across our continent.Congratulation also on starting a blog. I am a firm believer in blogs and I am alwayshappy to come across another African one.

Thank you for forwarding Edwin’s essay. I had come across it on one of the forums in which I participate. No doubt you have been followingthe debate his piece generated.
My thoughts on Edwin’s piece are mixed. His collection of the facts is useful. The analysis is not that useful. There is what I feel is a underlying bias against Odinga and Pro-Kibaki which would be fine if he were not trying to present this as a neutral piece.

For example, he skims over the fact that Kibaki has been in the executive since independence. He is entrenched in a system that grew increasingly corrupt. Secondly, he fondly claims brotherhood with Kibakias fellow economists yet fails to point out that Kibaki was Minister of Finance in the 1980’s under Moi when the country was bleed dry.

Contrast this with his analysis of Odinga as a triablist who brings the Luo vote and not much else to the table. This is nonsense. Of the all the serious presidential candidates Odinga is the only one who represents a Nairobi seat in parliament. Each and every other presidential candidate represents a seat in their tribal area. Odinga’s seat, Langata, is the most diverse in the country, ethically it containsall the tribes, and economically it contains huge slums such as Kibera and large country estates such as Karen.

This election was an economic choice in some respects yes, however it was an election really between continuity and change. If you want an image to carry with you about the pre election period then take this one; 5 years after Kenyans finally managed to get rid of the Moi dictatorship and entrusted Kibaki with the responsibility to lead the revival of the country from the top, Kibaki and Moi joined forces praising one another and attacking Odinga. They say you should judgea man by his friends.

I could go on and on dissecting this essay. It is not neutral, it downplays serious issues and skirts over major points in favour ofKibaki and against Odinga. The essay also does not touch the CENTRAL and KEY point to the mayhem we have seen these past few weeks. Despite the long term problems this violence was sparked by the fact that Kibaki stolen this election and
installed himself in StateHouse. It is that simple. The will of the people was ignored, the people revolted. What was he thinking? Thatwe are back in 1987 when Moi would steal an election and Kenyans would just go home? I have sat in meetings in the past few weeks with members of Kibaki’s inner circle who all admit that even they do not know who wonthe election. Where then does he get his legitimacy? He has none.

What commentators like me are saying is not that Kibaki lost and Odinga won. What we are saying is that WE DON’T KNOW. No one knows who won this election such was the incompetence of the Electoral Commission of Kenya. Until that is resolved Kenya will remain unbalanced.

It is good to see you have James Shikwati on your team of writers. His take on this will be interesting and will offer insight.

Thank you for getting in touch and many blessings in all yourventures.

Daudi@mentalacrobactics.com

reply

Edwin responds to Daudi's
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 11:50.
Daudi. I respond to some of your comments below.
Daudi: Contrast this with his analysis of Odinga as a triablist who brings theLuo vote and not much else to the table. This is nonsense. Of the allthe serious presidential candidates Odinga is the only one whorepresents a Nairobi seat in parliament.

Edwin:Many of my Luo colleagues all go to register to vote in Kibera where Mr. Odinga gets his support from. Plus the slums still display the ethnic segregation that the colonists started whereby the Luo's were placed in Kibera, the Luhya's in Kangemi, the Kikuyu in Dagoreti. Other slums like Huruma and Mathare are a bit mixed thus explaining the violence in those slums as contrasted to the relative peace in Dagoreti and Kangemi.

Daudi: I could go on and on dissecting this essay. It is not neutral, it downplays serious issues and skirts over major points in favour of Kibaki and against Odinga.

Edwin:I don't think that I downplayed serious issues but this is testament to the complexity of the situation on the ground such as no hope in sight for the many young people without jobs and politics based on ethnic polarization. Not mentioning them is not the same as downplaying them.

Daudi: The essay also does not touch the CENTRAL and KEY point to the mayhem we have seen these past few weeks. Despite the long term problems this violence was sparked by the fact that Kibaki stolen this election and installed himself in StateHouse. It is that simple. The will of the people was ignored, the people revolted. What was he thinking? That we are back in 1987 when Moi would steal an election and Kenyans would just go home? I have sat in meetings in the past few weeks with members of Kibaki's inner circle who all admit that even they do not know who won the election. Where then does he get his legitimacy? He has none.

Edwin: It is not known if Kibaki won or stole the election. Information I have indicates that PNU did rig but whether ODM won the elections is another matter. For example, it is claimed that the overnight tallying process before the announcement of results was signed and agreed to by ODM agents. When they realized they were loosing, they then went on a strategy of frustrating the announcement of results. I must add that I cannot vouch for the veracity of this assertion but there are people saying this. On the other hand, Kibaki had Kivuitu read the results and was sworn in as president literally 5 minutes later in a closed ceremony at the state house gives the impression of someone who was hell bent on stealing the election. Interestingly, EU observers and the local team have only given two constituencies where rigging by tampering with the tallying process have been proven i.e. Molo and Juja. Could it be that Kibaki actually won the election? But due to the lack of credibility in the whole exercise, the only way confidence can be restored in the presidential elections is by conducting a rerun.

Jerry Y. Takis- takisfam@yahoo.com
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 09:32.
Regarding the subject article by Edwin Nyanducha, I'd like to congratulate your professional journalism since this is the first article I've seen which makes any sense of the violence in Kenya.
The only question I had remaining was whether the ethnic groups and violence were divided among religious lines. I noticed that that one of the groups attacked was in an Assembly of God church. I know also that the main divisions are between Orthodox Christians, Protestants, Muslim and other original religions to Kenya.
Jerry Y. Takis- takisfam@yahoo.com

Edwin Nyanducha, edwin.nyanducha@gmail.com
Submitted by frankie on Tue, 01/08/2008 - 09:34.
Thanks a lot for the warm compliments. Such feedback always gives one inspiration to keep writing. I note that you have congratulated me for professional journalism. Actually, I am not a journalist but a consultant concentrating on financial and economic matters though I have an avid interest and appreciation of history which aids in making sense of political issues.
You have asked whether there are divisions along ethnic lines in the country. Generally no. However, the Muslims are a sort of vocal minority (ranging anywhere between 8% to 15%) as there are no accurate statistics who are viewed in a very suspicious light by the Christians who are the majority. But amongst the Christians, the key divisions are along tribal lines due to economic and cultural differentiations amongst the various groupings.
Edwin Nyanducha

Elections Kenya 2007-A Deeper Reflection

Folks,

Edwin Nyanducha, a very good friend of mine, is Kenyan. He is thePrincipal Consultant of Strathmore University Research and ConsultancyCentre. He shared his thoughts on KENYA on his educative discussion lists(Around Africa). He provides a succinct analysis of the undercurrentsleading to KENYA today. I find it quite refreshing, and hope you do too.


Elections Kenya 2007- A Deeper Reflection.

By Edwin Nyanducha

Introduction

Almost all emails I have been receiving from all over the world are asking the one simple question: what is going on in Kenya? From the disappointment of those who have always viewed Kenya as a model democracy to predictions by many prestigious circles who had indicated that the elections were not going to have any impact on business and society in our country, the naysayers seem to be having a field day. I will attempt to give what I consider a meaningful picture of the issues and the likely turn that things are going to take.

First Things First

There is a saying that all politics are local. In places like the US, the things that affect the Iowans are not the same ones that afflict the Texans. Likewise, in Kenya, all politics are local and the things the people in the coastal habour care about are not the same things people at the farmlands of Rift Valley value the most. Further complicating the issue is that region and tribe are synonymous, giving an impression that Kenyan politics is only driven by tribalism. The truth is more complicated than that.

The CIA Factbox below divides Kenya into 6 main ethnic groups accounting for 84% of the country's population with none having a clear majority:
Kikuyu 22%,Luhya 14%,Luo 13%, Kalenjin 12%, Kamba 11% ,Kisii 6% ,Meru 6% ,Other African 15%, Non-African (Asian, European, and Arab) 1%. This means that Kenya was, is and will always be a land designed for coalition politics.

Complicating the fact further is the long overdue generational change in the politicians holding office. Mwai Kibaki is past 70 years of age. Even Raila Odinga who carries himself as a youthful politician is 62 years of age. The CIA factbox again explains Kenya's age pyramid which reads below:
0-14 years: 42.1%
15-64 years: 55.2%
65 years and over: 2.6%
The median age is 18.6 years.

Setting the Stage

Official statistics indicate that 52% of Kenya's population currently lives below the poverty line. Agriculture accounts for 70% of the country's labour force on a pitiful 14% total arable land. Rigid land acquisition processes notwithstanding, a rapidly growing youth base in rural areas with biting poverty pushing many into urban areas, presents a clear and present danger as pressure on inadequate social services alone could trigger discontent. After years of negative growth in real GDP, the economy has finally started improving amidst cautious optimism being urged by critics who argue that the economy was simply experiencing recovery, not growth. In a sense, it can be said that the ill-fated election was about maintaining the status quo versus ushering in change. A far respite though is that after almost four decades of brutal politics under Jomo Kenyatta and Arap Moi, the quest for humane politics is becoming evident.

The Key Players

Mwai Kibaki is in a sense the quintessential English gentleman. Schooling in Makerere, East Africa's finest university after independence, Kibaki obtained a First Class Honours in Economics and then proceeded to London School of Economics for a masters in Economics. By the early 60's, Kibaki immersed himself in Kenyan politics starting out as Minister for Trade and Industry and moving on to be the Minister for Finance for very many years. Being a sort of economist myself, I must say that Kibaki has put in place quite a number of overdue building blocks in the country's economy that will keep serving the country well. For many years, Kibaki was ever present at the Muthaiga Country Club, which from the days of independence has housed the who is who in Kenya's establishment and has continued to be frequented by the diplomatic corps and the vestiges of Kenya's colonists, fondly known as Kenyan cowboys who arguably still control a very big chunk of economic activity in the country. Most people remark that Kibaki is such a gentleman that even in politics, he is often not willing to dirty his hands with a crude brand of politics.

In a sense, Raila Odinga can be defined as 'The Renegade'. Obtaining his education in engineering and political revolutions from Russia at the height of the cold war, Raila has always been an agitator for change which has landed him long stints in jail. A charmer of the masses and one who knows how to identify with the common mans plight, he is a force to reckon with on Kenya's political scene. From the onset of multi party democracy, Raila has in a sense been a political entrepreneur who would register a party, get on board the bulk of the Luo vote but not manage any significant impact in the rest of the country. He seems to have learnt from his mistakes and in 2007 he managed to have convinced over a good portion of voters from other parts of the country, including the Muslim vote.

Though many do not see it that way, William Ruto is another tour de force on the political scene. Rising to prominence in 1992, Ruto assisted former president Moi to put in place a powerful electioneering machine that saw Moi reelected despite every one assuming that he was going to be automatically deposed. In actual effect, Ruto is a true king maker. From having cobbled together ODM into a country wide party, aligning members of parliament's ambitions with those of ODM and then containing the fissures and cracks within the vessel, Ruto was able to assemble a formidable machine whose ripples were felt across the country in the just concluded elections.

Election 2007 Key Issues

In its own imperfect way, the current elections were the first time when some sort of principles based politics appeared: the Party of National Unity, PNU, was promising continuity and economic development while the Orange Democratic Movement, ODM, was promising change to the masses. On the surface of it, these seemed to be the issues. However, a closer inspection of the issues reveals more. At independence time, the Kikuyu were the most populous tribe and land availability had become an issue at their home towns. Rift Valley province, which houses clash torn Eldoret and Burnt Forest, was the former white highlands that had been segregated specifically for large scale settlement by the colonists. Suddenly the colonists’ farmlands were a free for all at independence time. Some version of what transpired thereafter holds that with the Kikuyu's being in power, they rushed to grab the lands and to settle some of their kin who were formerly huddled in reserves. Other people hold that the colonists’ farms were in effect government property.

The government of the day went on to subdivide the farms and invited land buying companies to purchase them off the government. It is argued that many Kikuyu's took advantage to purchase lands then. There are other versions of what happened but the foregoing two are the story lines that are most heard. I must confess I am not in a position to vouch for the accuracy or otherwise of the assertions but I recite them here to help explain the last few days events.

The Rift Valley is predominantly inhabited by Kalenjins who have been rapidly multiplying and now the supply of land to take advantage of the lucrative agricultural opportunities is beginning to become a bigger issue by the day. They view the presence of many Kikuyu's in the province as letting outsiders live in their midst and there have been repeated attempts to expel Kikuyu's from the province. The tactics employed are mostly terrorism in the nature of killing, burning property, attacking far to reach settlements, maiming with crude weapons, issuing of threats and inflammatory leaflets amongst others. Despite repeated clashes, the Kikuyu's have not demonstrated the will to abandon a place they now call home. Add on to this the notion that Kikuyu's did not vote for the Kalenjin's preferred presidential candidate, Eldoret's clashes must thus be viewed in this light. Kenya's coast has always been an area of immense economic activity with the port being the gateway to East and Central Africa. From the earliest days of independence, quite a number of industrious Kikuyu's started settling in Mombasa. With time, a sizeable number of small scale traders who controlled much of the coastal merchandise were Kikuyu’s. Then there is a fraction of people who argue that the sizeable revenue generated by the port in Mombasa is being sent off to the central government and the money is not helping the coastal residents much. This has led to calls for some form of federalism. Also, the laid back culture of the coastal residents when pitted against the industrious, aggressive and rough culture of the Kikuyu has led to the perception that they are an arrogant community who need to go back to where they came from. Jews in many parts of the world, including Europe and the USA, still receive this sort of reception. Clearly Kenya is not alone in this.

Due to failed agricultural policies and lack of development of the economy beyond its colonial base, rural urban migration is now the norm and the slums in the cities are growing at a very rapid rate. Kibera, Kenya's biggest slum and which is Mr. Odinga's constituency, is estimated to house a population of at least 1 million. The slums are now housing a growing population of young, poor youth's who are impatient for change and who will vote in whoever seems to promise them a better living. Fueling the issue further are politicians promises of reducing the cost of living which in all fairness has been largely brought about by an increase in the price of crude and not entirely due to policies of Kibaki's government.

Elections Play Out

Going into the elections, Kibaki felt confident that his returning Kenya's economy onto a positive growth path would automatically lead to his reelection. This made him be holed in the seat of government and surrounded himself with technocrats as they strategized on growth et al. During that time period, Raila and Ruto were busy criss crossing the country speaking to women at functions, consoling youths at football matches, loudly pointing the government's short comings amongst others. Kibaki seems to have forgotten that politics is by large measure a popularity contest in which the number of votes is a function of the number of hands you shake and the number of places you visit. Kibaki's punishing travel schedule in the run up to the election is thus explained by this. But a key failing of the Kibaki administration was not reading the signs of the times. Whereas they were helped to get into power by Raila and other people, no sooner were they in state house than they dishonoured the Memorandum of Understanding they had struck. The Mt. Kenya mafia started behaving with arrogance uber ales as if the other voting blocks did not matter and the Kikuyu's 22% was enough to return Kibaki to power. Insensitivity in appointing people to high offices such as the Central Bank Governor did not help either. Raila and Ruto read the mood of the time and assembled all those discontented voices under a single roof named ODM. Four month's to elections, Kibaki saw the opinion polls and for the first time, the possibility of losing the reelection started registering. Quickly cobbling together PNU which comprised of disparate parties that had not agreed on many critical issues, Kibaki packaged himself (and himself only) as the continuity that the country needs and a moderate in the face of the radicals calling for change. As the days soldiered on, he started fairing better in the opinion polls and by the time the Steadman Group conducted its second last opinion poll, the race was actually tied. The very last opinion poll conducted indicated that Raila had a very slim lead that would be significantly affected by the voter turnout.

Election Results Delays & Election Rigging

The elections were conducted via combining presidential, parliamentary and civic elections. Kenya's MP's make about 12,000 USD per month in tax free pay that is exclusive of very many other allowances they make. It is estimated that many people who were running for parliament were spending between USD 120,000 to USD 300,000 to clinch a seat. This led to very hotly contested parliamentary elections where losers kept insisting that the election results not be announced until their disputes were heard and determined. As the days dragged on, the increasing delays started creating an impression of a plot to rig the elections. Even constituencies a few kilometers away from the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) headquarters took up to 3 days to announce their results.

There have been allegations of vote rigging conducted via tampering with the vote tallying process some of which has been verified such as Molo constituency where Kibaki's votes at the counting center read 50,000 votes while results at announced at ECK headquarters were 75,000. Juja constituency has also been singled out where Kibaki's votes counted at the constituency level were 48,000 while those announced by the ECK were 113,000 votes. So far, those are the two proven cases I am aware of but I would be happy to receive verifiable cases of vote tallying tampering. The in explainable delays did a lot to increase tension across the country and created the impression that ECK had been compromised. Added onto this was the amateurish way that ECK kept receiving complaints from the various political parties while declaring results which lead to the commissioners being literally held ransom by the politicians every step of the way and further dented their credibility. It is very basic common sense that when you are referring a hotly contested race, you give your verdict and you do not entertain any feedback. A good way around it would have been to appoint a comments/feedback office and then have a press officer read out results with strict instructions not to entertain feedback or questions. The comments/feedback office should handle that. Another factor to take into account is that this is the first time that the voter turn out has been the largest in the history of the country's elections. In 2002, the total registered voters were 10 million while in 2007, the figure had risen to 14 million coupled with the highest ever recorded voter turnout, the project management challenges this state of affairs created was formidable. Add on to this severely deficient electoral laws that were negotiated in 1997 at the Inter Parliamentary Parties Group meeting at Safari Park which was all about Arap Moi making the minimum necessary concessions, it becomes understandable why the ECK's electioneering laws have so many flaws. Conclusion

As Electoral Commission of Kenya Chairman Mr. Samuel Kivuitu mentioned, his outfit has no capacity to arbitrate election disputes even in the face of overwhelming evidence. That is the work of the law courts or whatever other mechanism may exist. In the final analysis, this was a hotly contested race where both candidates had virtually the same chance of clinching the presidential race. Some ECK officers appear to have been compromised as evidenced by some of the commissioners issuing a statement that results were doctored. This has eroded the credibility of the commission even further. But it would be simplistic to assume that rigging occurred only in PNU strong holds as even ODM is guilty of the same. In this case, it is a question of who managed to steal and not get caught. Raila Odinga and William Ruto are justifiably aggrieved and will most likely do all within their powers to see if they can clinch State House. The violence and chaos in the country are part honest expression by Kenyan's of their disappointment in the electioneering exercise and part instigation by politicians. But what is not excusable is the senseless loss of lives, by and large caused by the ODM side. Burning of women, children and the elderly in a church by ODM affiliated youth in Eldoret is not forgivable. This was followed closely by the burning of another church in Ngong yesterday. No matter what explanation ODM will give, savagery and barbarism of the nature they are displaying gives the impression of a bunch of power hungry hooligans who will stop at nothing to become president. But the blame does not stop there. Kibaki's rigging of votes in certain quarters increasingly paints him as someone desperately clinging onto power by whatever means. The senseless loss of lives due to the actions of Kibaki and Raila are not excusable and a big shame on the both of them for their selfish ways. Kenya's economy is long overdue for a total redesign. What is needed is not a maintenance engineer overseeing an outdated system. We need an architect who can mentally wipe the slate clean and position our country on a whole new level. We have total installed capacity of 1,150 MW of electricity which is what a small town in a place like Philippines consumes. Our road network is sorely inadequate and in dire need of expansion. Our rail system was done by the colonialists in the late 1800's and is still expected to serve the country. The Mombasa port was designed to handle 10 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEU's) whereas it is now handling 14 million and rapidly growing yet I have not seen a new port or berth being constructed. Such bottlenecks to the growth of our economy and with no visionary agenda from the politicians just goes to demonstrate how they are still a part of the problem rather than the solution. Is it any wonder that tribal flare ups due to competition for small unproductive lands are leading to loss of lives? Perhaps the time for principles based politics based on people able to manage an internet economy in Kenya and not political entrepreneurship is surely long overdue and I have faith that 2012 will be the year when the democratic space will be clearly defined and be upheld thereafter.

This syndicated essay by AfricanLiberty.org is written by Mr Edwin Nyanducha, Principal Consultant of Strathmore University Research and Consultancy Centre. His email is edwin.nyanducha(-at-gmail.com)